Tres Knippa on the Fed
Lotus Brokerage CEO Tres Knippa speaks on Fox Business News. Mr. Knippa analyzes how the latest Fed Announcement will affect the S&P.
Movie Futures, The Future of Movies?
An Entirely New Way To Enjoy Going To The Movies
On April 20th, 2010 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Secretary David Stawick approved an order allowing Cantor Futures Exchange, L.P., to be designated as a new futures market. Cantor plans to sell derivative contracts based on movie box office receipts.
The order itself does not approve any form of box office receipt contract, and has not determined whether contract terms and conditions will be consistent with the Act and the Commission's regulations, however the market has been established.
Cantor also has requested approval from the CFTC of a contract related to domestic motion picture box office receipts. The Commission is still considering that contract. Moreover, given the novel nature of the contract that Cantor has proposed trading, the CFTC has requested, and Cantor has agreed, that rather than self-certifying such contract, Cantor will submit all new classes or categories of media-related contracts it intends to list for approval by the Commission. The Commission has not approved the trading of any futures or options related to box office receipts at this time.
The Motion Picture Association of America is seeking to discourage the CFTC from approving a new type of futures contract based on box office receipts. In its letters to the CFTC and statements to the press, the MPAA has asserted that futures trading is a form of
Citigroup Up | Goldman Down

Citigroup reports a larger than expected profit for the first quarter of 2010, but market mavens tout Goldmans SEC fraud charges as the cause for an overall slump.
Monday, April 19th, 2010
"Everybody was waiting to trade this morning on all the weekend news of Goldman and what it really means. But it's probably isolated to financial institutions, and this week and next is a bevy of earnings announcements," said Jay Suskind, senior vice president at Duncan-Williams.
Citigroup reported first-quarter net income of $4.43 billion, or 15 cents a share, compared with $1.59 billion in the prior-year period.
The banking giant said quarterly revenue was $25.42 billion, compared with $26.97 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected the company to post breakeven results.
Citi shares rose 4.6%, topping the gainers' list of stocks in the S&P 500 Index.
Meanwhile,
Goldman Sachs shares were down 1.4%. Shares dropped 13% on Friday, their biggest fall in more than a year, after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit against the bank and a vice president.
"People forgot this is a risk-based business," Suskind said of Friday's sell-off in the wake of the SEC move.
That said, the Goldman news also offered a catalyst for people to take profits after a nearly seven-week climb that left investors looking for a reason to sell, Suskind said.
Goldman dismissed as "unfounded" the SEC's contention that it sold securities tied to subprime mortgages without disclosing hedge fund Paulson & Co. helped select the underlying securities and bet against them. The hedge fund was not charged.
The case adds "a new layer of uncertainty as Wall Street will have to contend with political risk and financial reforms," Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hindsale Associates, wrote in a note.
Brazil farmers’ love of corn to reach plateau
From Agrimoney.com
Brazilian farmers' love affair with corn, which has seen them keep sowing despite prices are below the cost of production, may be reaching a plateau, with output next season set to fall to a five-year low.
Brazil's farmers have accelerated plantings for this season's winter, or so-called "safrinha", crop, with growers in Mato Grosso state getting more than half in the ground already, compared with 21% by this time last year.
The enthusiasm belies a local price which, at R$7.00 per 60 kilogram bag, is an estimated R$3.50 a bag below the cost of growing it.
Growers have relied on delaying purchases of fertilizers and sprays in an effort to get improve the prospects of reaping a profit.
"In the Center-West, for example, [input] sales that normally would have occurred in September or October were delayed to January and February," the bureau said in a report.
Corn vs soybeans
Nonetheless, farmers have limited appetite for increasing corn growing areas, with sowings for 2010-11 poised to remain flat at 13.3m hectares, with soybeans remaining popular thanks to their smaller fertilizer needs and more developed market structure.
"Producers will continue to opt to plant soybeans based on their lower input costs and greater liquidity," the report said.
Assuming yields return near to normal levels, Brazil's corn harvest will fall by 1m tons to 50m tons in 2010-11, the lowest for five years.
Production peaked at 2006-07 at 58.6m tons.
Limited support
The report gave no reason for farmers' insistence on growing corn despite the weak market, although production prices remain below the government minimum levels
Jim Rogers Case For Commodities
You May Not Agree With Jim Rogers, But You Can't Argue With His Success
Jim Rogers, legendary investor, spoke with Wall St. Cheat Sheet about bubbles, printing money and commodities. Rogers started the enormously successful Quantum Fund in 1970 with George Soros. Ten years later, the fund had grown by %4200 percent and Jim Rogers announced his retirement at age 38.
Below are a few excerpts from his conversation with Damien Hoffman.
On Bubbles:
...How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as silver are 70% below their all-time high? Same for coffee, sugar, cotton, natural gas, and many more. I have a problem talking about a bubble when assets are this depressed from their all-time highs.
A bubble is when assets are screaming to new highs everyday, everyone is talking about them, and everyone owns them. Right now, virtually no one owns commodities. So for Mr. Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets.
I am flabbergasted at Mr. Roubini
800 Million Tons Of Corn
U.S. Department of Agriculture Estimates World Corn Crop at Over 800 Million Tons
From Agrimoney:
The US Department of Agriculture, in a much-watched report on global crop supplies, lifted by 5.9m tons to 803.7m tons its forecast for the world
Forward Cattle Spreads Pointing Market Lower
Direct From The Cattle Pit On The Floor Of The CME With Tres Knippa
(Tres Knippa serves as the Principal of Lotus Brokerage. As a trader, broker, and member of the CME, Tres has been active in the agricultural markets for over 16 years)
The following piece was taken from the March, 2010 Agricultural Market Newsletter distributed by Lotus Brokerage Services. Tres also recently participated in National Public Radio's Marketplace - Click here to listen.
April Live Cattle are showing significant weakness versus the back months in the last week and a half. Bulls will suggest the only reason for the weak action in the forward spread is the funds are rolling longs out of April and into June and August. I understand the theory but I completely disagree. Forward spreads in commodity futures are a great indicator of forthcoming flat price movement.
Things that make me bearish cattle
1. Poor weekly slaughter numbers.
2. Poor action in the forward spreads.
3. Enormous open interest in the April Live Cattle
4. General market weakness in the face of a runaway bull in the hogs.
5. Strength in the Dollar.
Reasons I could be bullish
1. June Hogs are at $82.00. What is the downside of June Cattle at $90.50?
2. The damage to cattle carcass weights from the weather we have seen this year.
3. Demand should pick up in the US as the weather starts getting better (Baseball season effect)
Consider rolling April shorts to June in the coming 2 weeks. Some might ask why you should be short June if your cattle come out in April.
Corn Spread I Still Like
Old crop corn seems like it has very little upside potential. Grain merchants are laying the stuff on the ground since we have a 1.7 billion bushel carryout. The market is going to have to pay someone to hold all this corn so the carry spreads should go to around 5 1/2 cents per month. The spread between July Corn and December Corn is 13 1/4 cents. If I am right and we put 5 1/2 cents of carry per month, then that spread should go higher than 30 cents by early May. 17 cents of profit potential in three months? I
What Really Happened To The Economy
Exploring A Truth Behind The Noise
Any accountant will tell you, numbers are only as accurate as the people who tweak them. Economists, macroeconomists, news commentators, wall street spokes-holes, financial analysts, brokers and your dad can all explain the causes behind the largest financial meltdown since the great depression. They'll tout numbers, systems, financial instruments, policies and politics, and they'll be right. But those things are the causes, not the reason.
rea-son [ree-zuh
n]
-noun
5. normal or sound powers of mind; sanity.
The pursuit of more makes people do curious things. But that's always been the case. If prostitution is truly the oldest profession, then pimping is the second oldest, which brings us to the completely predictable, yet embarrassingly sad set of circumstances which led to so many innocents around the world being tipped on their heads, financially speaking.
Human nature hasn't changed, nor will it. Sociopaths have existed throughout history and come in all shades of grey. Individuals who take actions to benefit themselves to the direct and explicit detriment of others are scary in their own way, but only have so much power. The increasing power wielded by for-profit corporate entities, however, is enormously frightening. As they salaciously engorge themselves with incomprehensible mountains of cash, they have become an unnatural force and game changer with respect to your personal finances on a global level. The phrase "Too big to fail" comes to mind.
For-profit conglomerates are in business to make money, which is great, so am I. But the culture in a corporate environment varies considerably than sitting around at my kitchen table. Hundreds, sometimes thousands of people are competing to improve the financial outlook of the company. The moves people have to make sometimes can be brutal. Decisions are made unabashedly, with the corporations best interests first and foremost, which is okay, until choices are made that favor profit over common decency and basic human responsibility.
Now pretend for just a sec that you're an unbiased observer. You're from Mars and while you've been studying humans for eons, you have no emotional or financial investment whatsoever.
You've watched civilizations rise and fall, and you've noticed that many of these great nation-states shared conditions and motives which led to their ultimate demise. You recognize the behavior patterns that play out over and over again. You have developed and actually employ a rare gift known on earth as "common sense".
Why else would people lock their doors when they leave for work or don oven mitts before pulling hot bread from the oven? Seems simple doesn't it?
So when you look at the completely out-of-control financial instruments that brought down Bear-Stearns, Lehman Brothers and literally hundreds of others, do you blame the paper with the ink on it, the greed that spawned it, or the apathy that let it happen?
Prior to his "shocked disbelief" statement to the House oversight committee, Alan Greenspan believed that banks and financial markets needed little oversight, and would self-correct.
Apparently Mr. Greenspan never played "Monopoly". Self-Correct? Really?
Did Mr. Greenspan also believe that the guy who robbed you at gunpoint last year was simply a borrower and intended to pay you, the lender, back with interest?
Look, there's a few things we all know, whether we like to admit it or not. There are good people and bad people. There are bad people who are capable of doing good things, and good people, who under the right circumstances, can behave badly.
I mean c'mon people, you've read the stories about the Ford Pinto Memo and now the Toyota recall.
It's very clear.
CORPORATIONS ARE IN IT FOR THE MONEY
They don't care about you, your spouse, your kids or your mom, they only care about your money. Even accidental death is considered as a mitigating factor in cold fiscal terms.
Is every corporation bad? No, of course not, but you don't get as big as some of those guys are without a little evil. And you all know that too.
But let's not depersonalize this, money is not the root of all evil, it's the PURSUIT of money. And let's face it, the whole money dynamic makes some people just absolutely lose it.
We don't have traffic signals because the lights are pretty
People didn't care, bottom line. And some idiots in Washington decided that the rich and powerful would naturally play fair. The selfishness of the "ME" generation wreaked havoc, the Gen Xer's don't give a damn and the Great generation is too old to do anything about it.
When we gave up our membership to the neighborhood watch group and concentrated solely on looking out for number one, we started losing our grip.
Enlightened, intelligent and responsible individuals, like Brooksley Born and Hyman Minsky tried to warn us. But they were ignored or shutdown.
And while those enraptured by the political carnival are busy pointing fingers (what is it they say about "...three pointing back"), and focus on constituent cash extraction rather than actual governing, the same conditions remain.
Okay, Nutshell
We stopped thinking about the big picture, we stopped being team players and we stopped using common sense. Blame whoever you want, but at some point we stopped caring, as a group.
P.S.
Do you realize that Americans actually sacrificed in order to help pay for WWII? Do you comprehend what the term "War Effort" meant to citizens of this nation in those days? Or are you too busy facebooking on your palm pilot?
See what I mean.
Inspired by Umair Haque's; "The Real Roots of the Crisis", Harvard Business Review - Feb. 24th, 2010





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